Corona outbreaks hit the world. Many cities in the world have done a lockdown to prevent the spread of the corona virus. But how deadly is the corona virus for humanity?
The British Government’s scientific advisers believe the likelihood of dying from corona virus infection is between 0.5% and 1%.
This figure is lower than the mortality rate of confirmed cases which is 4% globally. This is according to data collected by the World Health Organization (WHO).
In the United Kingdom, until March 23, the death rate from the corona virus was around 5%. This is because not all infections are confirmed through tests.
As reported by the BBC, almost every country has a different policy in determining who gets tested, so comparing the number of cases and death rates between countries can produce the wrong conclusions. This is the explanation of Robert Cuffe, Head of the British Statistics Agency.
Death rates also depend on a number of factors such as age, general health conditions, and access to health services.
Is the risk age dependent?
Parents and people who have the disease are more likely to die from the corona virus.
The latest estimate from Imperial College London, the death rate is almost 10 times for people aged 80 years and over and lower for those under the age of 40.
The British Government’s medical adviser, Professor Chris Whitty said, although the death rate is higher for older people, most parents will only have mild to moderate symptoms “.
He also warned that this infection could not be underestimated for young people, while mentioning that many young people were infected and had to be treated in intensive care units.
So, it’s not only age that affects the risk of infection.
In a mass analysis of more than 44,000 cases in China, five times more deaths were found in people with diabetes, high blood pressure or breathing problems.
All of these factors interact with each other and we do not yet know the full picture of the risks for each type of person in different locations.
Even when patterns that shape mortality rates in various cases can reveal who is most at risk, we still cannot know the exact risk for certain groups.
It’s not easy to determine the death rate
Most cases of corona infection are uncountable because people tend not to see a doctor when they experience mild symptoms.
On March 17, the head of the British government’s scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, estimated there were around 55,000 cases in the UK, when confirmed cases were below 2,000.
Dividing the death rate by 2,000 will give you greater results than dividing it by 55,000.
This is one of the main reasons why the mortality rate in confirmed cases is a poor estimate for the actual death rate. Namely by making higher estimates even though many cases were not recorded.
But this could also be mistaken for another matter, estimating the lower death rate from excluding people who are now infected, but not confirmed, and then die.